Lead International Economist, United States International Trade Commission


International Trade, International Investment, Macroeconomics, Labor, Development, Technology and Innovation, Multinational Enterprise


USITC Gravity Portal

Gravity Course


In chronological order, latest to oldest.

[22] U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement: Likely Impact on the U.S. Economy and on Specific Industry Sectors (project leader)
USITC Publication No. 4889. April 2019.
In the media: Trade Talks podcast, The Economist.

[21] Gender and income inequality in United States tariff burden (September 2019) (with Arthur Gailes, Tamara Gurevich, and Marinos Tsigas) (slides)
Previous version: USITC Working Paper No. 2018-08-B. August 2018.
In the media: Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, Business Insider

[20] U.S. trade and investment with sub-Saharan Africa: Recent developments (various chapters and Appendix F) (with the USITC gravity modeling group)
USITC Publication No. 4780. May 2018.

[19] Can protectionism improve the trade balance? (October 2018) (with Sunghyun Henry Kim) (slides)
Previous version: USITC Working Paper No. 2017-10-B. October 2017.

[18] The economic effects of significant U.S. import restraints, ninth update (Chapter 2 and Appendix F) (with Arthur Gailes, Tamara Gurevich, and Marinos Tsigas)
USITC Publication No. 4726. September 2017.

[17] How does industry comparative advantage affect establishments?
USITC Working Paper No. 2017-05-E.

[16] Trade liberalization with heterogeneous workers: A structural approach (with Scott Baier and Yoto V. Yotov)
USITC Working Paper No. 2017-03-A.
Develops a general equilibrium gravity model with heterogeneous workers and uses it to estimate the effects of a US-UK free-trade agreement.

[15] Extending the CEPII gravity data set (with Tamara Gurevich, Peter Herman, and Ricky Ubee)
USITC Working Paper No. 201701A.
Updates the CEPII gravity database from 2007 to 2015.
Data 1948-2015, data 2007-2015
Data instructions: right-click on the data files and choose "save link as...", then change the extension to .zip).

[14] How to evaluate computable models of trade (with Alan Fox and Marinos Tsigas) (slides)
Previous title: Predicting the effects of NAFTA with the BDS, GTAP, and EK models
Suggests an approach to evaluating computable general equilibrium models of trade by out-of-sample forecasting. Evaluates Eaton-Kortum and GTAP models using historical simulations of NAFTA.

[13] Overview of Cuban imports of goods and services and effects of U.S. restrictions (Chapter 8 and Appendix I)
USITC Publication No. 4597. March 2016.
Estimates U.S. exports to Cuba in the absence of U.S. restrictions.

[12] The impact of educated labor on technology adoption and comparative advantage (slides)
In the media: Bloomberg.
Previous versions: USITC Working Paper No. 2015-08A, Education and comparative advantages of rich and poor countries.
Uses singular value decomposition to break down productivities into country and industry components. Finds evidence of log-supermodularity of productivities (show me). Also finds that labor with post-secondary education is the main determinant of productivity.

[11] Long-run effects of the Korea-China free-trade agreement (with Sunghyun Henry Kim)
Journal of East Asian Economic Integration, 19(2), pp. 117-142.
Forecasts and analyzes the effects of a Korea-China free-trade agreement.

[10] What would Korea-U.S. free-trade agreement bring? (with Ozlem Yaylaci)
International Economic Journal, 28(1), pp. 161-182.
Forecasts and analyzes the effects of the US-Korea free-trade agreement. Online appendix.

[9] International production, technology diffusion, and trade (Preliminary draft: 2007. First draft: 2009. This draft: 2012)
Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 23(1), pp. 111-154.
Develops a general equilibrium model of international production and technology diffusion, based on the Eaton-Kortum model of trade.

[8] Determinants of trade and specialization in the OECD countries (First draft: 2008. This draft: 2010)
Economic Inquiry, 51(1), January 2013, pp. 138-158.
Investigates the relative importance of the following determinants of specialization: technology, factor endowments, trade costs, and tastes.

[7] Predicting the effects of NAFTA: Now we can do it better! (First draft: 2007. This draft: 2010)
Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 5(2), December 2012, pp. 32-59.
Tests how well the model developed in [1] can predict the effects of NAFTA. Compares to other NAFTA forecasts.

[6] Capital, technology, and specialization in the neoclassical model
Journal of International Economics, 83(2), pp. 229-242.
Uses the model developed in [1] to investigate the effects of technology and factor endowments on specialization. Matlab programs and data.

[5] Accounting for international trade
Uses the model developed in [1] to investigate the effects of technology, factor endowments, trade costs, and tastes on the volume of trade.

[4] Putting industries into the Eaton-Kortum model (First draft: 2004)
Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 21(6), December 2012, pp. 807-837.
Winner of the Best Paper Prize for 2012 awarded by the editors.
Extends the Eaton-Kortum to multiple industries, then uses it to perform several policy-related simulations.

[3] Technology, factor endowments, and specialization in OECD countries: The role of variable capital utilization
Applied Econometrics and International Development 10-2, 25-46.
Using panel data from OECD countries, estimates the effects of technology and factor endowments on specialization. Uses methodology of Harrigan (1997) modified to account for variable capital utilization.

[2] An improved measure of industry value added and factor shares: description of a new dataset of the U.S. and Brazilian manufacturing industries
Carefully builds an extensive dataset that has since been used in Nunn and Trefler (2010) and Reshef (2007).

[1] Determinants of trade and specialization: a quantitative analysis (Ph.D. Dissertation) (2005)
Develops an extension of the Eaton-Kortum model to multiple industries and factors. Uses 1989 data from 19 OECD countries.


European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Conference, Bern, Switzerland, September 2019 (presenter).

Midwest International Trade Meetings, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee (participant).

Asian Meetings of the Econometric Society (AMES), Seoul, Korea, June 2018 (presenter).

Washington Area International Trade Symposium (WAITS), Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC, April 2018 (presenter).

International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC) Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, December 2017 (panel participant).

European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Conference, Florence, Italy, September 2017 (presenter).

Global Interdependence Center (GIC), 34th Annual Monetary and Trade Conference, Philadelphia, PA, April 2016 (presenter and panel participant).

International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD), Rethinking International Subsidies Disciplines Retreat, Cambridge, UK, April 2016 (presenter).

ASSA/SGA, San Francisco, CA, January 2016 (presenter).

SEA/IOS, New Orleans, LA, November 2015 (presenter).

EcoMod Conference, Boston, MA, July 2015 (presenter).

GTAP Conference, Melbourne, Australia, June 2015 (presenter).

International Conference on Free Trade Agreements and New Openness in China, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China, May 2015 (presenter).

Washington Area International Trade Symposium (WAITS), The George Washington University, Washington, DC, April 2015 (discussant).

Midwest International Trade Meetings, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, April 2015 (presenter).

Washington Area International Trade Symposium (WAITS), The George Washington University, Washington, DC, April 2014 (presenter).

Center for Economic Research of Korea conference, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, South Korea, May 2014 (presenter).

NAFTA at 20: Effects on the North American Market, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston, TX, June 2014 (presenter).

NBER International Trade and Investment Program Meeting, Washington, DC, March 2014 (participant).

Western Economic Association International (WEAI), San Francisco, California, July 2012 (session chair and presenter).

International Trade and Finance Association (IT&FA), Pisa, Italy, May 2012 (presenter).

Western Economic Association International (WEAI), Portland, Oregon, July 2010 (presenter).

Economic Modeling Network (EcoMod), Istanbul, Turkey, July 2010 (presenter).